Flip a Coin
Chiefs Kingdom, who’s going to win this all-important game? Wouldn’t we all like to know? Imagine if you could predict the future. One of the biggest promises of what AI can do is to anticipate an outcome based on past data observations. People are investing billions of dollars in solving essential problems with this capability. A great example of one theory occurred in the Chiefs vs Bills 13-second game. I’m referring, of course, to the 2021 AFC divisional playoff game that some refer to as one of the greatest playoff games in NFL History.
This statistical theory is known as the Gamblers fallacy. You may not know that leading up to the game, Bills Quarterback Josh Allen had successfully called the correct coin flip nine times in a row. He was a perfect 9-0 during the streak. During the pregame, someone alerted him to this fact, and he switched his model, calling heads to start the game and then tails for the OT coin toss. He lost both coin flips in the game, and his last call gave the Chiefs the ball, from which they took the kick-off and never gave the ball back. So what is the Gamblers Fallacy?
Josh Allen succumbed to the fatal flaw falsely believing that an independent event was not likely to continue after being correct nine times in a row, and the odds were that he should change. So he called Heads first, then Tails, and lost both. To say it another way, what are the odds of a perfectly legal coin that, after nine calls of tails, the next flip would be heads? The answer is 50-50. Allen mistakenly believed that the odds were against him and changed, and then changed again. I’m the opposite of that with my lucky Chris Jones Jersey; I’ve worn it (and washed it) every game of this unbeaten streak all season. There’s no chance I’m changing it! What’s your superstition? We know Creed Humphries’!
As we look forward to this upcoming game against the Bills, both teams come in a little banged up, and it will be a most entertaining game. One player that may loom large in this game is our all-around new hero, Mr Superman Leo Chenal. By now, everyone on the planet knows that Leo saved our unbeaten streak with his Superman field goal block last week, which immediately launched him into hero status in Chiefs Kingdom, and I got to know a little about him.
I was unaware that Leo comes from a family of 16 siblings – yes, you read that correctly. So how do you stand-out when you are one of sixteen? I guess you pick your spots, just as Leo did on Sunday.
Chenal was also a high school basketball player, which makes sense in how he showed his leaping hops to make that field goal block just like he was playing hoops defense on a closeout.
In prior meetings vs the Bills, our defensive whiz Spags had placed a spy on Josh Allen, and that was Willie Gay. With Willie no longer on the Chiefs, it makes sense that Spags would call on Leo Chenal to take on that role in this all-important game. The key when you are the spy is that you’ve gotta be able to run down the QB. Josh Allen runs a 4.7 forty, and Super Leo comes in at about 4.53 – he can catch him! Look for Leo on passing downs.
If the Chiefs lose this game, they will still hold the number one seed in the AFC in chasing home field for the playoffs, so it’s not fatal. However, if the Chiefs win, they will all but lock up the home field this early in the season, and more importantly, keep this winning streak alive. So, be ready Chiefs Kingdom this game is a little bit of a coin flip but there’s no reason to change a thing! The odds say so. Let’s go!